The Solar Tsunami Endeavour Programme is an international collaboration led by the University of Otago to understand how New Zealand’s energy infrastructure will be impacted by an extreme space weather event. We do not know when extreme space weather will occur, it could be in the next few centuries, or it could be tomorrow. This research project will help prepare Aotearoa New Zealand for that event. The project will investigate how solar explosions – massive ejections from the Sun called Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) – impact our ground based energy infrastructure. As our reliance on advanced technology becomes more pronounced, this field has become increasingly important globally. In the New Zealand context we primarily focus on our electrical transmission and gas pipeline networks.
Unusually large space weather events have previously occurred globally and in New Zealand, causing blackouts and destruction of multi-million-dollar equipment. For the USA alone, the estimated cost of such an event is US$0.5-2.7 trillion. A very rough estimate for New Zealand suggests an annualised risk cost of NZ$1 billion a year. Solar explosions drive rapid changes to the Earth’s magnetic field. Through Faraday’s law, changing magnetic fields induce currents in wires and pipelines. It is these induced currents, if large enough, that can destroy transformers and cause pipelines to rapidly corrode. This happens, to some degree, annually, with large “geomagnetic storms” occurring most years. The key risk however is around extreme events at the 1 in 100 year to 1 in 200 year level.
The fundamental questions we need to answer are:
– How likely, and how big, will such extreme storms be?
– Can they be forecasted?
– What impact would that have on our critical energy supply networks?
Our energy industry partners have identified the key questions that need to be answered to protect New Zealander’s from the worst of the impacts of such solar tsunamis. Our research will address these questions to allow mitigation of the extreme storm space weather hazard. Through our highly collaborative international partnerships we will also benefit from and contribute to the leading-edge research being undertaken into space weather and solar storms globally.
The Solar Tsunami project is funded by the Ministry for Business, Innovation & Employment’s Endeavour Programme fund. The Solar Tsunami Endeavour Programme involves the following institutions, research partners, and industry partners:
University of Otago, University of Canterbury, Victoria University of Wellington, GNS Science, British Geological Survey, British Antarctic Survey, University of Texas at Arlington, Tūhura Otago Museum, Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment, Transpower, Firstgas, ETH Zurich, NOAA Space Weather Prediciton Centre, Space Weather Canada.
